Reports indicate that the economy is turning around based on the evidence of a 5.9% increase in GDP and increased business investment reports. As the recession eases Boise real estate will be helped out by the positive news.
With the Commerce Department using fourth quarter numbers to project a sound 5.7% increase in GDP, many onlookers were pleasantly surprised to see the actual numbers slightly higher at 5.9%. It was still the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003. Posting an impressive 2.2% increase, the third quarter led all to date. If we go back to the 2003 number the Boise real estate market would be on solid footing.
In the winter period the GDP posted fore-casted growth of 5.7%, which indicates goods and services production totals, according to Reuters. With the recovery seemingly in full swing in the last few months of 2009, our nation seemed to be emerging from the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, but that growth has been stymied somewhat in the first quarter of 2010. Considering the housing slump and the low consumer confidence reports, businesses continued to reduce inventories to purchase needed software and equipment which all added up to a boost in fourth quarter numbers. This wan’t just a national trend either, as the Boise real estate market saw very similar changes in volume as well.
Stripping out inventories, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.9%, rather than the 2.2% pace estimated last month, indicating growth was not being driven by demand. Inventory sales amounts were alarmingly reduced from $33.5 billion to around $16.9 billion in the final quarter. They dropped $139.2 billion in the July-September period. The inventory changes alone were responsible for a 3.88% difference in GDP. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987. Inventory reductions by construction materials company had a sizable effect of Boise real estate too.
As a whole, the year 2009 featured the most dramatic decrease in GDP, at 2.4%, since the post World War II recovery of 1946. Toward the end of 2009, consumer spending had to be reduced from the projected 2% to 1.7% in consumer spending. Although offset soon afterward, the “cash for clunkers” program drove GDP, by stimulating consumption, up by a respectable 2.8%. A huge block of our economy normally comes from consumer spending, around 70%, but in the fourth quarter of 2009 it only added a minuscule 1.23%. In such a financial crisis, the Boise real estate market is not independent of the national trends.
Businesses continued to invest in equipment and necessary software at such a rate that the commercial real estate slump was not a cause of negative number in the Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter. Business investment rose at a 6.5% rate, much faster than the 2.9% pace estimated last month. In the preceding three months, it had slid by about 5.9%. With an anticipated increase of 5.7% for the fourth quarter, the construction numbers were a bit of a disappointment when they came in at 5%. Posting an increase of just under 19% in the third quarter, there was quite a disparity between quarters. Contributing a .3% increase in GDP, imports and exports were significantly stronger in the fourth quarter than previously anticipated. In the Boise real estate industry, the GDP and other market factors are closely watched.
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